I’m no economics expert, but it’s a question we’re all
asking, whether about the confectionery industry or our own personal
circumstances. Brexit is certainly going to have impacts – good and bad –
whether we like it or not.
I’ve read that Euromonitor is now predicting that post
Brexit, the compound annual growth rate for UK confectionery will decline by
-0.2% from 2015 to 2020. Only time will actually tell.
Figures aside, a large proportion of the food industry was
in favour of Remain, with 70% of Food & Drink Federation members backing
this stance. Indeed, Mars publically backed Remain and Mondelez, post Brexit has
stated that it will continue to remain fully committed to the production of
confectionery in the UK.
But we have a Brexit situation and not a Remain.
Many raw materials for confectionery are clearly imported, most
notably cacao and sugar. Packaging is often made in the Far East. How the pound continues to fair and what trading
agreements are set up will most certainly affect the cost of production and the
leading manufacturers will be acutely aware of this.
UK confectionery ends up in the hands of many ex-patriot
countries and this trade might yet be affected by the political situation over
time. Though not all of these destinations are in the EU and so the outcomes
might be more fragmented.
So there is definitely going to be a Brexit impact and there’s
quite a bit of “wait and see” to happen yet. Rest assured though, the UK is not
going to fall out of love with confectionery for anything or anyone – demand will
still continue and whilst price sensitive in some areas, we’ll continue to
enjoy our sweet treats, come what may.
